Determining the parameters of a seismic event source using GPS data
https://doi.org/10.18303/2619-1563-2026-1-6
Abstract
This study, conducted within the context of earthquake prediction, is devoted to the theoretical justification of an approach for determining focal parameters based on satellite monitoring of ground displacements in regions with increased seismicity. Based on 2D and 3D geomechanical models treating the Earth's crust as an elastic half-space and the concept of an earthquake focus as a point "double-force" source, inverse coefficient problems are formulated for finding the hypocenter coordinates and force components based on daylight surface strains calculated from satellite geodesy data. Numerical experiments using synthetic data establish the solvability of the inverse problems.
Keywords
About the Authors
L. A. NazarovaRussian Federation
Larisa A. Nazarova
Krasny Ave., 54, Novosibirsk, 630091
L. A. Nazarov
Russian Federation
Leonid A. Nazarov
Krasny Ave., 54, Novosibirsk, 630091
References
1. Aki K., Richards P.G. Quantitative seismology. University Science Books, 2002. 700 p.
2. Alekseev A.S., Belonosov A.S., Petrenko B.E. Determination of the integral precursor of earthquakes using a multidisciplinary model and active vibroseismic monitoring // Mathematical Modeling in Geophysics. Novosibirsk: Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, 1998. P. 3–50. (In Russ.).
3. Ammon C.J., Velasco A.A., Lay T., Wallace T.C. Earthquake prediction, forecasting, and early warning // Foundations of modern global seismology. Academic Press, 2021. P. 223–248. doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-815679-7.00015-X.
4. Baker J., Bradley B., Stafford P. Seismic hazard and risk analysis. Cambridge University Press, 2022. 600 p. doi:10.1017/9781108425056.
5. Bletery Q., Nocquet J.M. The precursory phase of large earthquakes // Science. 2023. Vol. 381 (6655). P. 297–301. doi:10.1126/science.adg2565.
6. Bondur V.G., Smirnov V.M. Method for monitoring seismically hazardous territories by ionospheric variations recorded by satellite navigation systems // Doklady Earth Sciences. 2005. Vol. 403 (5). P. 736–740. EDN: LJHLVP.
7. Burgmann R. Reliable earthquake precursors? // Science. 2023. Vol. 381 (6655). P. 266–267. doi: 10.1126/science.adi8032.
8. Dobrovolsky I.P. Mathematical theory of tectonic earthquake preparation and forecasting. FIZMATLIT, Moscow, 2009. 240 p. (In Russ.).
9. Goldin S.V., Timofeev V.Yu., Ardyukov D.G. Fields of the Earth's surface displacement in the Chuya earthquake zone in Gornyi Altai // Doklady Earth Sciences. 2005. Vol. 405 A (9). P. 1408–1413. EDN:LJKWIT.
10. Kalinchuk V.V., Shestopalov V.L., Shestopalov P.V., Sheremetyev V.M. Investigation of the mechanical predictor of crustal earthquakes using GPS measurements // Science in the South of Russia. 2025. Vol. 21 (1). P. 6–10. (In Russ.).
11. Kocharyan G.G. Geomechanics of faults. GEOS, Moscow, 2016. 424 p. (In Russ.).
12. Mindlin R., Cheng D. Nuclei of strain in the semi-infinite solid // Journal of Applied Physics. 1950. Vol. 21 (9). P. 926–930. doi:10.1063/1.1699785.
13. Nazarova L.A. Modeling of volume stress fields in fault zones of the Earth’s crust // Doklady Akademii Nauk. 1995. Vol. 342 (6). P. 804–808. (In Russ.).
14. Nazarova L.A. Estimating the stress and strain fields of the Earth’s crust on the basis of the seismotectonic data // Journal of Mining Science. 1999. Vol. 35 (1). P. 26–35. doi:10.1007/BF02562442. EDN:KCGTVY.
15. Nazarova L.A., Nazarov L.A. Method for determination of impending earthquake focal parameters based on daylight surface displacement data // Doklady Earth Sciences. 2009. Vol. 427 (2). P. 1001–1005. doi:10.1134/S1028334X09060257. EDN:LPKPMU.
16. Nazarov L.A., Nazarova L.A., Karchevskii A.L., Panov A.V. Estimation of stresses and deformation properties of rock masses which is based on the solution of an inverse problem from the measurement data of the free surface displacement // Journal of Applied and Industrial Mathematics. 2013. Vol. 7 (2). P. 234–240. doi:10.1134/S1990478913020130. EDN:RFHVHH.
17. Nikolaevsky V.N. Geomechanics. Collection of works in 2 Volumes. Vol. 2. Earth's crust. Nonlinear seismics. Whirlwinds and hurricanes. IKI Publishing House, Izhevsk, 2010. 560 p. (In Russ.).
18. Ohta Y., Inoue T., Koshimura S., Kawamoto S., Hino R. Role of real-time GNSS in near-field tsunami forecasting // Journal of Disaster Research. 2018. Vol. 13 (3). P. 453–459. doi:10.20965/jdr.2018.p0453.
19. Pollitz F.F. Coseismic deformation from earthquake faulting on a layered spherical Earth // Geophysical Journal International. 1996. Vol. 125 (1). P. 1–14. doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1996.tb06530.x.
20. Pulinets S.A., Uzunov D.P., Davidenko D.V., Dudkin S.A., Tsadikovsky E.I. Is earthquake forecasting possible?! Trovant, Moscow, 2014. 144 p. (In Russ.).
21. Pupatenko V.V. The accuracy of determination of rapid static slip caused by earthquake using GNSS data // Advances in Modern Natural Science. 2019. No. 3. P. 78–83. (In Russ.).
22. Rabotnov Yu.N. Mechanics of deformable solids. Nauka, Moscow, 1979. 744 p. (In Russ.).
23. Scholz C.H., Sykes L.R., Aggarwal Y.P. Earthquake prediction: a physical basis // Science. 1973. Vol. 181 (4102). P. 803–810. doi:10.1126/science.181.4102.803.
24. Sdelnikova I.A., Steblov G.M. Monitoring of the tsunamigenic earthquakes by means satellite geodesy // Geophysical Research. 2016. Vol. 17 (1). P. 46–55. (In Russ.).
25. Sobolev G.A., Ponomarev A.V. Physics of earthquakes and precursors. Nauka, Moscow, 2003. 270 p. (In Russ.).
26. Timofeev V.Yu., Ardyukov D.G., Timofeev A.V. Deformation and displacements of Earth’s surface in Turkish earthquakes era in February 2023 by geodesy data // Russian Journal of Geophysical Technologies. 2024. No. 2. P. 55–72. (In Russ.) doi:10.18303/2619-1563-2024-2-55.
Review
For citations:
Nazarova L.A., Nazarov L.A. Determining the parameters of a seismic event source using GPS data. Russian Journal of Geophysical Technologies. 2026;(1):6-15. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.18303/2619-1563-2026-1-6
JATS XML













